Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has described Moody’s latest assessment of Nigeria’s economy as a major external validation of the economic reforms implemented by the Bola Tinubu administration.
Moody’s Ratings, one of the world’s leading credit rating agencies, on Friday upgraded Nigeria’s economic outlook from “stable” to “positive”, while retaining the country’s long-term foreign and local currency rating at B3.
Oyedele, in a statement, said the development demonstrated growing confidence in the direction of Nigeria’s economy following what he described as difficult but necessary reforms.
The latest Moody’s assessment comes shortly after FTSE Russell announced Nigeria’s move from “Unclassified” to “Frontier Market” status, as well as other positive assessments from international rating agencies.
In May, S&P Global Ratings raised Nigeria’s rating from B- to B, while Fitch Ratings maintained the country’s rating at B with a stable outlook.
According to Oyedele, the Federal Government’s next objective is to move Nigeria towards investment-grade status.
“Our medium-term ambition is to place Nigeria firmly on the path to investment grade,” Oyedele said.
He said achieving that goal would require the government to sustain improvements in the country’s external position while accelerating reforms in domestic revenue mobilisation, spending efficiency and debt management.
Reforms driving improved outlook
The Tinubu administration’s economic programme has included the removal of the petrol subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market and sweeping tax reforms.
Oyedele said the reforms were helping to restore key fundamentals of macroeconomic stability, including stronger foreign exchange reserves, a more resilient external position, moderating inflation and improved monetary policy transmission.
“We are committed to doing the work required to get there, not for the rating itself, but because the underlying reforms are what will lower Nigeria’s cost of capital, crowd in private investment, and deliver shared prosperity for Nigerians,” he said.
The minister said the government would continue to strengthen tax administration, improve revenue collection, manage public debt more effectively and work with state governments to promote financial discipline.
He added that structural reforms aimed at expanding the non-oil economy and broadening the government’s revenue base would remain central to the administration’s economic strategy.
Moody’s highlights stronger external position
Moody’s said the positive outlook reflects improvements in Nigeria’s external position, including large current-account surpluses, rising foreign exchange reserves and improved functioning of the foreign exchange market.
The agency also noted that the Central Bank of Nigeria is now in a stronger position to use monetary policy to influence economic conditions.
According to Moody’s, Nigeria’s current-account surplus could reach about 6.1 per cent of GDP in 2026.
The agency also highlighted the substantial increase in Nigeria’s external reserves. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the country’s reserves stood at approximately $53.30 billion as of August 26, 2026.
Growth and inflation outlook
Moody’s also pointed to stronger-than-expected economic growth.
Nigeria’s real GDP growth reached 4 per cent in 2025, exceeding earlier projections of about 3 per cent, according to the rating agency.
Moody’s expects economic growth to remain relatively strong through 2027, supported by continued expansion in non-oil sectors and increased oil production.
Inflation has also moderated significantly. The country’s inflation rate fell to 15.4 per cent in July 2026, compared with 25.3 per cent a year earlier.
What the positive outlook means for Nigeria
A “positive” outlook does not constitute an immediate upgrade of Nigeria’s credit rating. Rather, it indicates that Moody’s sees a reasonable possibility of a future upgrade if the country sustains its economic improvements.
The development could eventually help Nigeria secure cheaper access to international borrowing, as stronger credit ratings generally reduce the risk premium demanded by lenders.
A sustained improvement in Nigeria’s credit standing could also boost investor confidence, attract more foreign capital and potentially reduce the amount of government revenue spent servicing debt.
Oyedele said Moody’s assessment suggests Nigeria could receive another rating upgrade if the country maintains its stronger external position and successfully implements reforms capable of permanently improving government revenue.
FTSE Russell reclassification
Oyedele had earlier welcomed FTSE Russell’s decision to reclassify Nigeria’s capital market from “Unclassified” to “Frontier Market” status, effective September 21, 2026.
Nigeria was removed from the global Frontier Market universe in September 2023 following persistent challenges involving foreign exchange execution and capital repatriation, which affected accessibility for international investors.
According to Oyedele, the latest reclassification reflects improvements in foreign exchange liquidity, capital repatriation and market accessibility.
He described the move as another important validation of Nigeria’s reform programme and a foundation for the next phase of development in the country’s capital market.
The government is now targeting further improvements in Nigeria’s economic fundamentals, with investment-grade status identified as a key medium-term objective.
